Equities Weekly | US Equities – S&P 500 Grinding Higher Despite Tariffs Headwinds
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Chief Investment Office12 Feb 2025
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US equities: S&P 500 grinding higher despite tariffs headwinds. US equities traded higher despite escalating trade tensions and the potential implementation of a 10% blanket tariff. The Trump administration is finalising plans for reciprocal tariffs on any country that charges duties on US imports and this will keep markets on the edge in the coming weeks. But despite the volatility emanating from policy rhetoric, the latest earnings season suggests that US corporate fundamentals remain sound. Among companies that have reported, c.76% posted positive earnings surprise with financials, communication services, and technology registering the largest earnings beat.

Robust Tech earnings in the latest quarter has allayed earlier concerns of DeepSeek’s impact on Big Tech’s profitability. With the cost of training models trending downwards as a result of hardware efficiency and newer training optimisations, Jevons Paradox suggests that lower costs and improved efficiency can lead to greater AI adoption, and this is positive for overall demand. Recent announcements of hyperscalers forecasting a c.46% increase in AI-related capex for 2025 underscore the positive sentiments.

US financials stand to benefit meaningfully from Trump’s push for deregulation and economic stimulus. A more business-friendly regulatory stance is expected to encourage M&A, particularly in healthcare, technology, and financial services where they face increased antitrust scrutiny. The combination of lower barriers to dealmaking and potential tax incentives will drive advisory and underwriting revenues.

Convergence in equity fund flows: After a positive week of inflows last week, both Developed Markets (DM) and Emerging Markets (EM) experienced outflows (as of 5 Feb) of USD447.4mn and USD174.5mn respectively. Within the DM space, US Equity Funds notched its sixth consecutive week of inflows, attracting in USD203.6mn as escalating tariff concerns weighed on market sentiments. In the EM space, China Equity Funds registered outflows of USD548.9mn even as key consumer spending over the Lunar New Year holidays signalled improving domestic demand.

Figure 1: Strong US earnings surprise


Source: Bloomberg, DBS


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