Equities Weekly | Japan Equities – Near-Term Volatility Continues
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Chief Investment Office2 Oct 2024
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Japan equities: Near-term volatility continues. While China and Hong Kong equities just had their best week in more than a decade, the same cannot be said for Japan equities, which continue to be ravaged by near-term uncertainties. The confirmation of Shigeru Ishiba as the new prime minister of Japan saw the TOPIX and Nikkei-225 fall 3.5% and 4.8% on Monday (1 Oct). In addition to the leadership transition, other factors such as the US elections overhang, and uncertainties over Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy rates and the state of the yen carry trade continue to weigh on Japanese equities. Notwithstanding this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic. Firstly, Japanese companies continue to have positive earnings momentum; aggregated 1QFY24 results by Bloomberg for show a 6.7% y/y increase in sales and a 10.8% rise in recurring profits for companies in the TOPIX index, surpassing expectations by 3.1% and 9.5% respectively. Secondly, economic growth surprised on the upside in the second quarter, expanding much faster-than-expected by an annualised 3.1%. This was a remarkable rebound from the -2.3% contraction at the start of the year, thanks to a strong rise in consumption backed by real wage growth as inflation-adjusted wages in June rose for the first time in more than two years.

We continue to maintain our neutral stance on Japan, recognising that current elevated uncertainties and currency volatility will weigh on risk appetites and corporate investments in the near term. While we are neutral in the near term, we stay constructive in the long run on select themes like semiconductor, IT services, and financials, which will gain tailwinds from Japan’s interest rate normalisation. In addition, we expect the heavy machinery sub-sector in the industrials space to benefit from increased defence spending.

Equity fund flows: The week ended 25 Sep saw exceptional flows EPFR-tracked US Equity Funds as well as China Equity Funds. In the wake of the Fed’s first interest rate cut in over four years as well as the People’s Bank of China’s latest stimulus package, US and China Equity Funds absorbed c.USD11bn and c.USD8bn respectively. Europe Equity Funds notched their third inflow of the third quarter, and their biggest since mid-May. Japan Equity Funds posted their third weekly inflow in September as the BOJ signalled that it would move cautiously when it came to hiking interest rates.

Figure 1: Real wages in Japan grew in June for the first time in more than two years


Source: Bloomberg, DBS


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