For the full report with detailed analysis, charts, and individual ASEAN-6 economic outlook, please download the PDF
Wider scope and breadth of tariffs compared to Trump 1.0
Compared to Trump 1.0, the ASEAN-6 countries face higher direct and indirect risks from tariffs under the current administration. Under Trump 2.0, tariff action is more wide-ranging than the first term, covering a broader spectrum of trading partners, product groups and higher rates. Additionally, in the past 6-7 years, the ASEAN-6 region has become more embedded in global supply chains, accompanied by a bigger share in global trade, whilst attracting strong investment interest. Supply chain reconfiguration has also led to an increase in trade with China as well as the US. Notably, China’s global export share did not decline materially under Trump 1.0 in 2018-19.
Given the region’s heterogeneity, we expect varying impact from the various proposed US tariffs – reciprocal tariffs beyond the US’s very top trading partners; and sectoral tariffs covering autos, semiconductors, pharmaceutical, and copper products. Using a cross-section of five criteria including a) an increase in share of exports to the US; b) scale of trade imbalances with the US; c) reciprocal tariff differentials; and d) & e) exposures to the US semiconductor and pharma industries.
Our vulnerability heatmap (shown in the PDF with detailed analysis) across these five criteria highlights Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia as relatively more vulnerable, followed by a moderate spillover risk for Singapore, Indonesia and Philippines. While the direct impact could be via reciprocal tariff, the second derivative impact might be through slower growth in key trading partners, China and the US.
(see PDF for details)
To counter risks and strengthen defences
Regional governments are likely to initiate bilateral discussions and seek concessions with the US administration as the scale and scope of reciprocal action becomes clearer in early-April. Greater intra-ASEAN collaboration is another opportunity. Beyond multilateral catalysts, there is progress on bilateral initiatives. A case in point is Singapore and Malaysia collaborating on the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ) (see our detailed Chartbook: Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone’s potential). ASEAN-6 has also maintained a close relationship intra-region, even amid increased FDI and trade linkages with China over the past decade. Intra-ASEAN goods trade share for ASEAN-6 continues to be the largest, exceeding 20% over the years (valued at above USD700bn as of 2023) and higher than that with China. Besides trade, strong trade co-operation is also supported by multilateral agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact (RCEP) and a potential upgrade to the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA), with discussions underway.
(see PDF for details)
Growth implications
Details on the upcoming US reciprocal tariffs will be keenly watched. In our assessment, the wider scope and breadth of tariff action compared to Trump 1.0 is likely to keep the region open to direct and second derivative impact. The extent of negative direct impact will vary based on individual exposures, with our multi-factor analysis pointing to Thailand most at risk followed by Vietnam and Malaysia.
(see PDF for details)
Country-specific updates
In the PDF, we provide quarterly updates on each of the ASEAN-6 countries.
(see PDF for details)
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