Singapore Outlook 2024: A year of renewal
2024 will likely be a year of renewal for Singapore’s economy. We see seven key economic themes.
Group Research - Econs4 Dec 2023
  • Growth to improve in 2024, mainly supported by a gradual yet fragile external-led recovery.
  • Inflation is set to be bumpy, but ease in 2024.
  • Monetary policy to normalise in July by reducing the steepness of the SGD NEER policy band’s slope.
  • USD/SGD to hold in the same 1.30-1.38 range with a downside bias as the year progresses.
  • SORA to drop more meaningfully when the Fed cuts in 2H24.
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Singapore is navigating a world beset with polycrisis. Heightened geopolitical tensions from US-China rivalry to ongoing wars, macroeconomic uncertainties from stubborn inflation to high interest rates, disruptions from climate change and technology, as well as an ageing population cloud Singapore’s medium-term economic prospects. Against this backdrop, 2024 will likely be a year of renewal for Singapore’s economy, and we see seven key economic themes.

Cyclically, we expect modestly better economic growth, forthcoming foreign investments, a less tight labour market, and a bumpy inflation moderation, barring large shocks from lingering uncertainties. 2024 will also be an important year of leadership transition to the 4G leaders, with expected policy continuity. Regarding policies, fiscal policy is balancing near and long-term priorities, and we some room for a slight expansionary policy stance. Monetary policy will return to quarterly decisions in 2024 for timely responses to a highly uncertain landscape, and we see potential for normalisation in line with global central banks. USD/SGD is likely to hold in the same 1.30-1.38 range with a downside bias as the year progresses, and SORA is set to drop more meaningfully when the Fed cuts in 2H24.

Key Economic Themes

  • Gradual yet fragile external-led recovery
  • Forthcoming foreign investments
  • Less tight labour market
  • Bumpy inflation moderation
  • 4G leadership transition
  • Fiscal policy balancing multiple priorities
  • Monetary policy to normalise




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Chua Han Teng, CFA

Economist - Asean
[email protected]

Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 
 
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