JPY Rates: The hawk amongst the doves
JGB yields held back by global rates.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow18 Sep 2024
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Policy divergences between the BOJ and the Fed has been on full display over the past few months. From a peak of 380bps in early May, the 10Y UST-JGB yield differential has since compressed to 280bps. Notably, the bulk of the adjustment was borne by the decline in US Treasury yields as market participants suddenly soured on the prospects of the US economy. The considerations on the forward path of the BOJ will depend on both macro and market factors. On the macro front, Japan’s data have consistently surprised on the upside with headline inflation still hovering close to 3% YoY, supporting further calls for BOJ normalization. However, we note that market conditions have shifted. The drop in USDJPY to 142 could have a deflationary impact on the economy with some of this reflected in the decline in 5Y breakeven to 1.37%, from as high as 1.60% in August. Globally, concerns on the US and Chinese economy may have also led to a decline in commodity prices, further curtailing inflation worries. While these may not factor directly into the BOJ’s immediate considerations (the policy rate is only at 0.25%), there would be some caution from a pricing perspective on how fast and how high longer-term JGB yields can go. Even if the BOJ decides to maintain a hawkish stance, it may be difficult for 10Y JGB yields to climb above 1% sustainably if global yields stay low.



Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 


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