USD Rates: Prescribed versus actual Fed funds rate considerations
No urgency to cut another 50 bps in November.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow1 Oct 2024
Article image
Photo credit: Unsplash/Adobe Stock Photo
Read More

The jury is still out for the next FOMC meeting in November where the market is factoring in 38% chance of another 50bps cut. While the Fed did move aggressively in September, there is no guarantee that the Fed would have to cut by the same magnitude again with Fed Chair Powell indicating that there is no preset path to easing. Moreover, between now to the next meeting, the Fed has to consider two sets of NFP prints and arguably, sentiment around the US Presidential elections (which would have concluded before the FOMC meeting). Focusing on economics, we think that the gap between the prescribed FFR with the current FFR may be a key decision factor between a 25 or 50bps cut. Based on our model, the FFR less prescribed rate gap was sizable (>100bps too high) in August, but this gap has since dropped to around 70bps.  Assuming no material deterioration in labour market and inflation conditions in the coming few weeks, there may also not be any urgency for the Fed to deliver another 50bps in November. Note that this gap would be largely closed if the Fed delivers another 50bps of cuts (25bps in November and another 25bps in December) by the end of the year as communicated.

In order to tilt the odds firmly towards 50bps, the unemployment rate would likely need to rise close to 4.5%. For a similar effect, NFP would probably need to register a sub-100k print without any significant upward revisions for the preceding two months. A further drop in inflation would provide more leeway for the Fed to act, but probably would not add urgency for accelerated easing. Aside from economic fundamentals, sentiment matters. The current backdrop of Fed easing and hopes from Chinese stimulus is buoying sentiment. With financial conditions still loose, it is not obvious that the Fed would need to go even faster than currently priced into order to boost the economy. 




Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 


Subscribe here to receive our economics & macro strategy materials.
To unsubscribe, please click here.

Topic

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation.  Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies.  The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.  The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.

[#for Distribution in Singapore] This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E.

DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability. 18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability.  11th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

Virtual currencies are highly speculative digital "virtual commodities", and are not currencies. It is not a financial product approved by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, and the safeguards of the existing investor protection regime does not apply.  The prices of virtual currencies may fluctuate greatly, and the investment risk is high. Before engaging in such transactions, the investor should carefully assess the risks, and seek its own independent advice.