Indonesia rates: Soft inflation; Prabowo govt warming up
Lowest inflation in three years.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao2 Oct 2024
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Indonesia’s September headline inflation rose by the slowest pace in three years at 1.8% yoy from 2.1% the month before, experiencing a decline in sequential terms for the fifth consecutive month. Food (beverages and tobacco) inflation is off its March peak, easing to 2.6% yoy in the month. The transportation segment is also on a downtrend. Core inflation rose slightly to 2.1% from Aug’s 2.0%. Dissipating price pressures are also reflected in the volatile and administered categories, as supply-side pressures accompany subdued demand-pull forces. Sharp gains in the rupiah in the past two months have also kept a lid on imported forces. Considering the year-to-date average of 2.5% and our sub-2% forecast for the remaining four months of 2024, we lower our annual projection to 2.3% from 2.8% currently. With the US Fed embarking on its rate cut path, firmer rupiah and easing inflation at home, we expect the Bank Indonesia to utilize its significant real rate buffer to cut the benchmark rate by another 25bp to 5.75% in 4Q24.

The new government led by President-elect Prabowo Subianto will officially take office on October 20, with the cabinet line-up likely to be announced soon after. Amongst the most keenly watched will the Finance Minister’s post. Earlier in the year, speculation was that the contenders included a former Finance minister, financial regulator chief, and a Deputy Minister. Notably, the incoming government plans to reorganize the Finance ministry’s responsibilities by hiving off the revenue department to form a State Revenue Agency in January 2025, by merging the Directorate General of Taxes and Directorate General of Customs & Excise. This would see the new FinMin responsible for budgeting and expenditure, amongst others. A separate institution to focus on revenues is intended to channelize efforts towards improving collections, with persistently low receipts as % of GDP being a crucial constraint of fiscal policy. Key decisions on this front will include, in the near-term, whether the planned 1% increase in the VAT goes ahead next year, besides medium-term goals to widen the tax base and improve due diligence to boost collections on a sustained basis.


Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]



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