India rates: New external members of the monetary policy committee announced
No post-FOMC shift to a dovish gear.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao2 Oct 2024
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Ahead of next week’s rate decision, three new external members of the monetary policy committee (MPC) have been announced. Ram Singh, Delhi School of Economics Director, economist Saugata Bhattacharya and Nagesh Kumar, director and head of Institute for Studies in Industrial Development (ISID) will be three new members appointed for a term of four years, as the term of the current three ends this week. Other members of the MPC are RBI representatives, including Governor Das. Ram Singh has authored papers in the areas of infrastructure management, intricacies of land acquisition, public-private partnerships in infra, climate change, amongst others, reflecting a focus towards improving the economy’s manufacturing capacity, and developmental economics. Saugata Bhattacharya, who has worked for domestic financial institutions, was also a part of the RBI’s Working Group on Monetary Policy and the Finance Ministry Group on Estimating Foreign Savings. In previous commentaries, he had highlighted the need to monitor the US Federal Reserve, expecting the RBI to stay hawkish until inflation returned to the target. Nagesh Kumar has worked in the field of industrial development, with his areas of research including FDI and international trade, regional integration, and sustainable development. The varied background of the three members will provide a good mix of perspectives on domestic and global developments. Official leaning of the new members is likely to be gleaned from the commentary during the rate decision as well as subsequent minutes of the policy meeting. Terms of another two RBI MPC members including the Governor, ends between December and mid-January.

For India, the US Fed’s decision is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the RBI monetary policy committee to shift expeditiously to a dovish gear. Domestic conditions, primarily the inflation path, besides currency movements and growth impulse, should also warrant a pivot. Moderation in the July-August CPI inflation was on the back of an exceptionally favourable base effect, with stickiness in food inflation in fact offsetting a deeper pullback in the headline print. The central bank’s resolve in addressing food price inflation and preventing an un-anchoring in inflationary expectations is likely to see the MPC members lean towards a pause in October, with a softening in stance towards the December rate review. Geopolitics also warrant attention after the overnight escalation in tensions between Iran and Israel.  
 

Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]



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