Safe havens favoured amid geopolitical risks
USD and JPY could benefit from haven demand.
Group Research - Econs, Chang Wei Liang4 Oct 2024
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Oil prices rose by over 4% overnight, as President Biden did not deny that Israel is considering retaliatory strikes on Iran’s oil facilities on top of its military facilities. That said, the US expects Israel to moderate its response and put a lid on the conflict. Risks of a direct conflict between Israel and Iran are markedly higher than in April when Iran launched its first missile strikes on Israel. After the recent missile barrage, Israeli PM Netanyahu said that Iran had made a big mistake and will pay for it. Netanyahu’s poll ratings have rebounded as he pursues a strategic change in the balance of power through force against Iranian proxies. The USD could stay supported on safe haven demand amid Middle East risks, and more so if US payrolls surprise on the upside today.

JPY may be a beneficiary too, as geopolitical risks restrain appetite for carry trades. JPY shorts had increased after PM Ishiba stated that Japan wasn’t ready for an additional rate hike, bringing USD/JPY from mid-143 to 147 levels. Meanwhile, the new METI minister Muto said that Japan is looking to restart as many nuclear reactors as possible. 21 out of 33 remaining reactors are still offline in the wake of the 2011 Fukushima disaster. A jump in nuclear energy production should help reduce Japan’s large energy import bill, narrow the trade deficit, and support the JPY.

GBP/USD dropped around 1% towards 1.31, after BOE Governor Bailey suggested that the Bank could take a more aggressive approach to lowering rates. This was in contrast to prevailing views that the UK would be slower in easing policy, and with BOE having refrained from cutting rates just two weeks ago.

While onshore China markets are on holiday until next Tuesday, positive sentiment towards China has been sustained, with the Hang Seng index closing above the 22000 level yesterday. This has not translated into a stronger offshore RMB, as USD/CNH rebounded towards 7.05. We have cautioned that China’s economic outlook is still fragile, and marked RMB gains are only likely if there is broader regional appreciation against the USD. The RMB may appreciate as foreign equity inflows return, but we believe a fast pace of gains is not conducive to growth, and more so given Western tariff threats.

Chang Wei Liang

FX & Credit Strategist
[email protected]

 
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